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Recently, wall street transmits a series of astonishing messages consecutively: United States forest will be bought; Lei Man's brother goes bankrupt; American international group lays in committee to seek the short-term financing support of 40 billion dollar to American federal. These volatile news make clear, only then at second the crisis of American banking industry that lends an issue is in farther aggravate, and American federal lays in committee former chairman Gelinsipan more express, the United States sink " hundred years encounter " in financial crisis, its cause the whole world the possibility with a series of turbulent economy is increasing.
Stock market of financial crisis, whole world steeps fall, Chinese stock market inflicts heavy losses on again, fictitious economy is being permeated to economic substance, city of car of American Europe Asia-Pacific glides in succession... bow wave of this round of economy, will domestic car market and global automobile industry, automobile industry get how old influence? The reporter undertook be interviewed with all possible means and understanding.
Chinese market will leave freeboard increases a period
Market performance: Sales volume amplitude put 1 ～ in August delay
Yo of Mei Xin of deputy researcher of academy of collaboration of economy of international trade of Department of Commerce thinks, to the United States character second borrow the crisis to have become after 1929 the latent capacity of the most severe crisis. As to to China and world economy, besides system of banking of direct aggravate world disorder, still can affect substantial economy branch, wait like line of business of estate, car, aggravate credit is constrictive, make economic growth puts delay.
Since 2002, what market of our country car exceeds high speed growth to amount to 6 years is long, exceed the growth rate of our country GDP far, this kind exceeds high speed growth to begin stop a car this year. According to association of Chinese auto industry newest data statistic, this year 1 ～ in August, the whole nation takes the market that use a car overall performance is low fan, our country mixes four million five hundred and fifty thousand three hundred four million six hundred and thirty-two thousand four hundred times by the produce and sale that use a car, grow 13.67 compared to the same period ％ and 13.15 ％ , with go up photograph of year of the corresponding period than, amplitude fall after a rise 8.32 percent and 10.94 percent.
Since this year, domestic car city is divided in January, in March, outside growing in June, in Feburary, April, in May, mixed in July all appeared in August annulus comparing drops. Advocate if get shake of earth of plain of snow calamity and Spring Festival holiday, short of Wenshui River, oil price,rise, the influence of the Olympic Games, appeared to enjoy growth compared to the same period even in August. This also is recently 3 years many come first monthly sales volume drops. As we have learned, car sales volume appears recently monthly glides compared to the same period is in Feburary 2005, dropped at that time 26.3 ％ , reach three hundred and eighteen thousand six hundred.
To taking the show of the market that use a car this year, the report that comes from the whole nation to be met by banquet of the couplet that use a car thinks, home is multiplied with the car serious lead is consumed, cause the market to exceed high speed growth period already ended. This report thinks, begin from 2008, by the development that use a car speed will put delay. China will leave by the city that use a car the growth of 20 ％ above. From 2009 ～ 2015, predict to multiply year of increase rate of the market that use a car to be in about 5 ％ of 10 ％ ～ , this still says to go up in international car market is high speed development.
Can say, the United States second the follow-up influence that lends the crisis, mix to the consumption of Chinese automobile industry undoubtedly investment brings long-term effect, the development speed of line of business of our country car also reachs fall after a rise rational limits.
Predict: Grow this year or control in 15 ％
The personage inside course of study predicts, this year " Jin Jiuyin 10 " traditional busy season will sell at a discount greatly. Besides economic big environment not hopeful, credit outside the macroscopical reason such as constrictive, government and business spending systole, lighting oil price case to rise also is main reason. In addition, of the stock market drop considerably bring about wealth effect to lose, to the car especially impact of medium-sized car consumption is bigger.
The personage inside course of study is forecasted, taking the sale that use a car in September still may be negative growth compared to the same period, by the industry that use a car short-term low fan will restrict 3 months time continuously at least. Somebody thinks, the car sales volume of our country will grow 10 ％ ～ this year 14 ％ , and last year add fast it is 21.8 ％ , sales volume is 8.79 million. Forecast by this, 10 million target still comes true likely this year. Chinese automobile industry sold growth to will continue to put delay 2009, amplitude is met under 10 ％ .
Dong Jianhua of analyst of automobile of southwest negotiable securities tells a reporter, american banking crisis is short-term inside eliminate hard, this will cause certain effect to global economy progress, and the evidence that our country economy also will be faced with growth to put delay, long-term effect is bigger in industry of automobile of this pair of our country, the inflection point that Chinese car consumes will come. It is exit will get not only very big impact, domestic demand also can drop, drop as grail, investment also can suffer an effect. The growth of automobile industry may maintain annual to be controlled in 15 ％ this year, next year the likelihood falls 10 ％ are the following.
External the market exports be the first to be affected
Xu Changming of vice director of development department of resource of national information center expresses, the important matter is ceaseless this year, domestic car consumption lasts low fan, look forward to of a lot of cars is sent hope to exporting the market to seek a breakthrough, however the domino effect of financial crisis makes our country car exports the market to suffer inflict heavy losses on, industry whole is so harder.
Xu Changming tells a reporter, this banking crisis of the United States basically is to Chinese market the means with indirect effect, chain-reacting acts well. Above all, exit can get very great resistance. Our country is truckload those who export the United States is very few, but component is very much, car purchasing power of the United States drops, certainly will affects export of our country component.
If financial crisis is deepened again, spread, bigger to the concussion of price of the sources of energy, resource product, the impact that for instance country and the area such as Russia, middle east get is bigger, and the staple market that these countries are exit of our country car. This shows, export pair of automobile industries pull a movement to use so won't apparent.
Li Chunbo of analyst of automobile of letter negotiable securities thinks in, american banking crisis is not big to the immediate impact of industry of our country automobile, indirect effect is more. Demand of American home car glides, chinese component exit can suffer an effect. Financial crisis spreads to the whole world from the United States, affect the economy of the rising market such as Russia, middle east, Africa, affect car demand of place, that our country is truckload exit can get bigger impact.
Euramerican market lasts fatigued and weak
At present global car city has appeared " into the winter " evidence. Tycoon of a few cars cuts down the member of persons employed, the reduction of output, message that adjusts year end is transmitted again and again. From recently data of sales volume of two months car looks, situation of market of 3 old cars makes the whole world the person is depressed. The declining tendency of American car market still is continueing, the sales volume of 3 old car tycoons of American glides compared to the same period extent still is as high as two digit, analytic personage predicts, sales volume will be in this market 2008 14 million ～ 14.5 million between, slide the level before coming 10 years; European car sales volume glides extent is in dress to the United States, somebody predicts, of a lot of large car markets of European low fan will last to 2009; "Golden brick Shikoku " in, only Brazil one branch alone beautiful, grow impetus to be not decreased. According to " information times " |
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